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“Glory to Ukraine!” he shouts across the border. “Glory to the heroes!” his Moldovan counterpart roars back in Russian in what has become a customary exchange in post-Maidan Ukraine.
It takes all night for our bus to reach the capital, Chisinau. Before long, it becomes apparent that the Moldovan guard’s political views are not shared by all of his countrymen. Though EU flags rise high above the Moldovan parliament, Chisinau is also covered in of Irina Vlah, a young woman who recently became governor of the country’s southern Gagauzia region, smiling and shaking hands with a Russian Duma member. Support for the EU in Moldova is at its lowest in ten years – and Russian propaganda is not solely to blame. When Angela Merkel visited Chisinau in 2012, Moldova was hailed as the “success story” of the EU’s Eastern Partnership, an initiative aimed to encourage reform and expand trade links with six former Soviet countries. But the bar for that accolade was low: aside from Georgia under Mikheil Saakashvili, the Partnership countries were not interested in reform.
Ukraine was going rogue under Viktor Yanukovich, Ilham Aliyev’s Azerbaijan was too oil-rich to care, Armenia was firmly in Moscow’s grip, and Belarus’ Aleksandr Lukashenko continued to be dubbed “Europe’s last dictator.” Given those geopolitics, it was relatively easy for Brussels to support the small, poverty-stricken country of Moldova. But it soon became increasingly clear that a corrupt Moldovan elite was exploiting EU support. Funds with “no strings attached” created a sense of impunity for Chisinau politicians. The government displayed no real intentions of fostering a business friendly environment, and confiscations of profitable businesses remained common. Moldova’s ongoing corruption problem recently erupted in a massive banking scandal. $1 billion ( of Moldova’s GDP) from three of the country’s state-owned banks disappeared overnight.
It remains unclear what happened to the missing millions, but the transactions took place just days before the November 2014 elections, on the watch of Moldova’s pro-EU government. “When we voted in our first pro-EU leaders in 2009, we expected a real fight with corruption,” says Iurie Morcotylo, a Chisinau-based analyst. Six years on, there is a lingering feeling that pro-EU parties have let the country down. “Authorities have failed to explain the benefits of EU integration to the people,” says Chiril Luncischi, a politician from Moldova’s Liberal Democratic Party.
The challenge for Moldova’s pro-EU faction – forced to form a minority coalition government under Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici following the November 2014 elections – is to win back society’s trust. “It is absolutely necessary to return to forming a parliamentary majority after the local elections in June,” says Luncischi.
As long as Moldova kept a pro-EU outlook, Brussels turned a blind eye to many of Chisinau’s misdeeds. But that romance is over now. As a result, the EU’s public image has been badly tarnished.
“Moldovans increasingly associate the EU with corruption,” says Alexandru Fala, an economist at Chisinau’s Expert Group think tank. Many who until recently supported a European path are now looking to pro-Kremlin parties for leadership. Just five years ago, 75 percent of Moldovans favored deepening ties with Brussels. Today, a profound split has emerged in Moldovan society, which is irreconcilably divided between a future with the EU and a future with Russia. Uniting Moldovans is a daunting task. Poverty has forced many to become seasonal migrants.; almost a quarter of Moldova’s 3 and a half million people are employed abroad. Moldovans find work in South West Europe (predominantly in Italy, but also in Spain and Portugal) or in Russia (mainly Moscow).
Witnessing southern Europe’s economic crisis has dampened migrants’ enthusiasm for the EU, who make their disappointment known back home. Those returning from Moscow are highly exposed to Kremlin propaganda and tend to support pro-Russia parties. Often called “the village of Europe,” Moldova is the continent’s only country with a larger rural than urban population, where a devoutly Christian approach to life and politics prevails. The ruling pro-European parties openly portray themselves as the lesser evil. “They tell us: ‘Perhaps we are bad, but if you vote for the pro-Russia parties you will have a Donbas in Moldova,’ ” Igor Batan, an influential Moldovan political commentator, told me.
The Socialist Party – which advocates joining Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union – is now the single largest party in the Moldovan parliament. Its leader, Igor Dodon, vows to “end this European experiment” in Moldova if he wins a majority in the next election. Moscow has accordingly shifted the bulk of its support from the more moderate Communist Party (which Dodon describes as “insufficiently anti-Western”) to the Socialists. Prior to the election, high-profile Kremlin officials including Sergey Mironov, former speaker of the Russian Senate, attended the party’s congress in Chisinau. Nikita Granger I like how the author claims it’s Russian propaganda that causes Moldovans in Russia to vote for pro-Russian parties.
Maybe it’s because the EU has failed? Maybe it’s because the EU has destroyed the prosperity of an entire generation?
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